Northwest Living | Bellingham Real Estate Market

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose 5.5 percent for September 2008. This was the biggest gain since July 2003, and the inventory of unsold homes fell 1.6 percent. Sales additionally were up 1.4 percent from September of 2007, the first year over year increase in three years. Hopefully this is a sign the housing market could be stabilizing and we can finally reach a bottom. Were hopeful in my own local Bellingham real estate housing market. 

September sales of existing homes rose to a 5.18 million unit annual rate from the 4.91 million unit pace set in August. Economists had expected sales to rise to only a 4.93 million unit rate. The positive number is important because this is the highest number of sales since August of 2007. In a real estate market like this, a .25 (25,000 units) above the expert’s expectations is a nice surprise to the upside.

The increase in sales was spurred, in part, by a rise in foreclosure and other distress sales in regions of the country hard-hit by the ongoing housing downturn. The foreclosed units are making it’s way through the market & the faster we can get these through the market the faster we can get back to a market resembling something more normal. However, 82% of the sales were homeowners that were living in their homes and that’s a very positive sign.

Leading the way were home sales here in the West recording a 16.8 percent jump. The Midwest saw an increase of 4.4 percent and the South saw a 2.2 percent rise. In the Northeast, sales fell 1.2 percent.

In some regions like the West, the lower prices are seeing buyers return to the marketplace. This was a nice jump and hopefully this trend can continue because the first step in stabilizing the housing market is an increase in home sales.

A huge supply of unsold homes, tighter lending standards and record foreclosures have pushed down home prices. The number of homes unsold in the market also went down last month which was another good sign.

However, For the 12 months ending in August, U.S. home prices fell 5.9 percent, and the cumulative decline since the April 2007 peak is 6.5 percent, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s House Price Index. The closer we are to a bottom we should start seeing more and more signs like this with buyers getting back into the market place. Via CNBC News.

Jerry Campbell | Muljat Group | Bellinghma WA | Bellingham WA Real Estate

Pending sales of existing U.S. homes unexpectedly rose in August to the highest gain in over a year, this is according to data from the National Association of Realtors. The NAR Pending Home Sales Index, based on written purchase & sale contracts, rose 7.4 percent in August to 93.4 on pent-up demand as affordability improved.

Most of the recent turmoil in the national & global financial markets have escalated since the August pendings, so I’m sure that number will actually have to be revised depending on how many pendings fail to close.

August’s reading was 8.8 percent higher than a year earlier and was the highest since 101.4 in June 2007. Economists in a recent poll had expected sales to drop by 1.8 percent.

“What we’re seeing is the momentum of people taking advantage of low home prices,” NAR’s senior economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.“Home buyers in July were hampered by overly stringent lending criteria in the months before the government takeover of Fannie and Freddie,” in early September, he said. “August shows some unleashing of pent-up demand before the credit crisis accelerated in September.” Pending home sales gained across all regions in August: up 18.4 percent in the West, 8.4 percent in the Northeast, 3.6 percent in the Midwest and 2.3 percent in the South.

However, I’m wondering if this is really a sign of where this market is going or not, because some of those numbers are foreclosed homes at bargain prices upping the numbers. In my area of Bellingham, WA I’m personally not seeing a lot of foreclosures, but they are out there certainly.  It’s been said that Housing at first impacted the economy and the economy is now impacting housing in a vicious cycle.

The NAR is also forecasting that U.S. existing home sales will be at 5.04 million this year, rising to 5.41 million in 2009, and new home sales of 503,000, falling to 471,000 next year. Housing starts, including multifamily units, should drop 28.2 percent to 973,000 units this year, and fall further to 843,000 in 2009 as builders clear their current inventory.

Jerry Campbell - Muljat Group - Bellingham Real Estate

The Federal Reserve dropped the federal funds rate to 4.25 percent today. The street however was hoping the Fed might instead lower rates by a half point but chose not to. This key rate is what governs overnight lending between the nations banks.

In another move the Fed also lowered the discount rate it charges for direct loans to banks by matching a quarter point here as well to 4.75 percent. Since September the Fed has now lowered the overnight rates by a full percentage point in an attempt help the nations economy and lower the risk of falling into a recession. 

Most of todays decision was based on the nations condition with the housing sector.  With so many banks exposed to subprime loans, especially in the southern part of the country from California to Florida, that the banks are reluctant to extend credit.  The Northwest is not spared from the subprime mess, but were at least fortunate to have a much lower rate of subprime loans outstanding per loans on the market. One look at the national map of subprime loans shows that the Northwest should at least be feeling like we will get through this. 

But because the nation as a whole has several areas of concern with housing and subprime loans, it affects us all, and so the fed had no choice but to step in and react.

Outside of the housing and financial services sectors, the U.S. economy has exhibited resilience. In addition to a steady labor market, many retailers reported stronger than expected November sales and a slumping dollar helped boost demand for U.S. exports.

Also, the risk of a inflation, which the central bank had cited as a reason for monetary restraint even as financial markets clamored for rate cuts, appears to have
eased slightly. Productivity has been strong and core inflation gauges, which exclude volatile energy and food costs, have remained tame.

However, after a period of relative calm, credit markets are showing a level of strain not evident since August, when mounting defaults on U.S. subprime mortgages first led to a
worldwide pullback in money markets.

Does this mean that interest will drop in lock step, not necessarily, because interest rates are connected to long term bond rates.  Subprime borrowers will not gain from this cut, because those type of loans are keyed with LIBOR rates which actually have been trending up in recent weeks. Because of the liquidity issues in global financial markets, LIBOR rates have actually increased at the same time that treasury and other benchmark yields have been declining. The rate cuts today will however benefit those that are looking for lower rates on home equity loans, because those are tied in with the prime rate that borrowers pay on such loans.

Jerry Campbell - Muljat Group - Bellingham, WA - Bellingham WA Real Estate

It seems like more and more these days I’m getting questions about buyers wanting to purchase foreclosure homes. So I did some research the other day and found a few web sites and blogs that had some very useful information on the subject of foreclosures.  One of the best sources I found was on the Austin real estate blog which had a lot of useful information.  Ki Gray is the owner of the site and he’s using a map that he found on the New York Times showing county by county where the highest percentage of the subprime loans were taken out.

click the map below to open a new window with the full interactive version and our Northwest viewers can checkout the areas in the Northwest with the highest subprime loans.  That will give one an idea where you could pretty much predict where one would expect to find loans going into foreclosure.

subprime mortgage map

The interactive map showed that for the Northwest corner of Washington State, Skagit County showed that 27% of all mortgages are in subprime lending, 19% in Whatcom County, 18% in Island County, and only 10% in San Juan County. As high as those numbers might seem at first glance, those numbers are not to bad when compared to many of the other counties in the State of Washington.  Most of the other counties range from 25% to 35% overall.

This map is a good indication why the Northwest has done so well versus the rest of the country.  The light shade areas are the areas in the US that have the lowest subprime loans per county, and the darker areas are the worse hit by these tough loans. Looking at that map it appears that many areas in the midwest and especially the south and southwest have really been the hardest hit.

Click that link above the map and you can really zoom in and get a good idea of whats going on across the united states.  I really think if buyers and sellers in the Northwest could see this scenario, it would give a much more positive attitude towards are market here.  Especially when one factors the low interest rates under 6%, low unemployment rates (down to 3.8% in Whatcom County), and pretty good retail numbers.  In Whatcom County we also have the benefit of having almost three million citizens of British Columbia just over our border and with the parity of the Dollar and the Looney, Canadians are shopping here more. 

Next week I’m going to post the sales numbers for the Whatcom County housing market and it will show that the Bellingham WA housing numbers for the first ten months of 2007 vs 2006 are actually up year over year. I have the total sales numbers for the last eight years on a monthly basis and I’m going to start sharing them here on my Northwest real estate blog.  Look for the stats next week. I tend to look at the number of sales instead of prices, because I feel its one part of statistics that can not be easily manipulated. Price increases only tell you about what properties are selling for, but what about the homes that tested the market and didn’t sell.  That’s why I look at sales numbers comparisons instead. Tells a more true story.

Jerry Campbell - Muljat Group - 510 Lakeway Dr - Bellingham, WA 98225 - Northwest Living